2006 ELECTION ANALYSIS

A few preliminary thoughts on the results of the 2006 election.

• Iraq played a role in the Republican defeat, but I am not sure it was as dominant as some Democrats and analysts say. It would appear to me that Bush should have eased Rumsfield out sometime this summer--the day after the election makes less sense to me. I have read that Rumsfield was willing to resign a year or so ago, but Bush did not accept his resignation. If Rumsfield had been eased out, it might have helped save some Republican seats--for some voters Rumsfield's departure would be seen as a sign that Bush might be looking at something else besides "more of the same." I don't think the Democrats have much of an Iraq policy, but Bush didn't appear to have anything to offer except "stay the course."
• The administration and Republicans failed to communicate the good things that were happening in the economy. The stock market is at a record high which means everyone with an IRA or a 401 or 403 plan is making money. Also unemployment is at 4.4%.
• Republicans, especially in the House, seem to be poorly led and inept at campaigning. Democrat campaign ads were superior to those run by Republicans--I think a good TV ad is worth more than going to nursing homes and shaking hands for TV news clips.
• The Republican defeat did rid the party of some of its less capable members (Allen in Virginia and Hayworth in Arizona are two examples). Maybe new blood will arise. I know Newt Gingrich is a polarizing figure, but the Republican party needs thinkers or visionaries like him. It can't just be a party of Hastert Hacks.
• More evangelicals seem to have voted for Democrats in 2006. I haven't read the data, but I believe in many cases Republican corruption created some disillusionment. I anticipate that the evangelical vote will become less Republican, especially if the Democrats run a more moderate or conservative candidate.
• The Pro-Life movement has taken a hit and I think it will be greatly weakened. Given the South Dakota results, it would appear that Americans want abortion as an option. In addition it will be harder to press its agenda in Washington with the Democrat majority. I know Senator elect Casey in Pennsylvania is pro-life, but pro-life Democrats are still a very small minority. Also will he be able to stand up to the pro-abortion pressure in his party? Finally, Bush will have great difficulty appointing any Supreme Court nominee that is even somewhat pro-life and have the Democrat Senate approve the nominee. He barely got nominees through when Republicans controlled 56 seats in the Senate.
• Democrats appear to be against free trade in many cases (especially if they had strong union support). Many of them have not come to grips with globalization and outsourcing. It raises the possibility that America will slip into some kind of protective, isolationist posture. What America needs is a drastic retooling and new way of thinking that will help it face the realities of the 21st century--Democrats want to go back to a world economy that no longer exists.