From Marc Ambinder at the Atlantic Monthly.
The demographics are changing, and it's probably true that the proportion of voters who identify as conservative evangelicals -- white conservative evangelicals -- will decline over time. It's also probably true that white conservative evangelical identifiers will become less focused on the cultural issues that defined our politics in the 1990s and more focused on the challenges of globalization, the environment and technology. That's the generational ticking time bomb for single issue pro-life voters. But the realities of politics today are such that the GOP cannot win national elections without the enthusiastic support of white evangelical Christians. They can try; it won't happen. That depresses moderates in the party, it depresses atheists and agnostics in the party, but it's the reality. The results of 2004 showed that, given certain conditions and issue sets, winning coalitions can be formed. Maybe the Bush-Iraq-Terrorism-Economy-Katrina event chain has changed all of that forever; maybe not.
To throw this out there: it will be easier for a conservative Catholic nominee, like, say, Bobby Jindal, to expand the Republican coalition rather than a white evangelical protestant like Mike Huckabee.
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