DECLINE OF AMERICA

From Morningstar.  A discussion of America's economic decline in the context of recent history by an investment advisor, Ray Dalio.  The parallels between us and the United Kingdom in the early 20th century are quite similar. 

Dalio is probably the best macro investor alive. He has made a fortune anticipating once-in-a-generation shifts, such as the financial crisis, the subsequent bull market in bonds, and the eurozone crisis. His hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is now the world's biggest, and its Daily Observations newsletter is devoured by policymakers and investors alike (your faithful editor included, when he can get his hands on a copy). Most importantly, his reasoning is transparent and sound.

A quality that sets Dalio apart is how he attempts to understand the economic "machine" by studying distant or extreme scenarios, such as the Weimar Republic's hyperinflationary economic implosion and the decline of the British Empire. He's synthesized his research into a five-stage model on the rise and fall of empires. And he thinks the U.S. is in the final stage. The implications are fascinating.