Confusionism! It is ignorance and stupidity that is behind international policy decisions.
. . . you've probably heard about the
various "isms" in the field of international relations. There's realism, of course, but also
liberalism, idealism, and social constructivism. And don't forget Marxism, even though hardly
anybody claims to believe it anymore.
These "isms" are essentially families of theory that share certain
common assumptions. For example, realists
see power and fear as the main drivers of world affairs, while liberals place
more weight on human acquisitiveness and the power of institutions.
But there's another major force in world affairs, and sometimes
I think it deserves an "ism" all its own.
With tongue in cheek and apologies to a famous Chinese sage, I'll call
it "Confusionism." For Confusians, ignorance and stupidity are
the real key to understanding state behavior, not fear, greed, ideals, class
interests, or any of those other things that people think drive world
affairs. When Confusians seek to
explain why states act as they do, they start by assuming that leaders do not
understand the problems they face, have only a vague sense of where they want
to go, and no idea at all about how to get there. Instead of starting with the rational actor
assumption beloved by economists, realists, and most liberals, Confusians hone
in on all the reasons why humans typically get things wrong.
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