CRITICISM OF THE CIA

A number of good points are made about the failure of the CIA from this blogger. The bold face is my note.

Last night, Hugh had longtime CIA employee and George Tenet advisor Mark Lowenthal on as a guest. At the end of the interview, Lowenthal provided an unintentionally hilarious (albeit chilling) summation of the CIA’s pathos. While discussing Iran’s path to nuclear weapons, Lowenthal posited that the Mullahs remain seven years from “mission accomplished”. Hugh asked if we could afford to take the chance that the CIA’s “guess” on this matter was correct. Lowenthal bristled, reminding Hugh that at “the CIA we don’t guess. We estimate.”

I feel so much better! Because there’s such an enormous difference between guessing and estimating. And, let’s face it, the CIA’s track record on recent estimations is rock solid. Oh sure, they severely underestimated Saddam’s proximity to nuclear weaponry in the early 1990’s. And the Agency over-estimated Iraq’s WMD capabilities in the run-up to the Iraq War. And regarding Al Qaeda’s plans and abilities, the Agency was effectively clueless. But I’m sure the Agency has made some estimates in the past few decades that haven’t completely stunk.